Steve Rubel of Micro Persuasion is prepared to bet that U.S. media will be almost all digital by 2014 and that the tangible forms of media will be extinct or well on their way there.
That's a fairly heady gesture, but his reasoning is the declining business model of print in the U.S. and the rise of digital media across news, broadcast and music.
I'd take that bet, only because demography is going to help legacy media a little bit as the boomers hit retirement age (but maybe not, if the economy continues to turn down, retirement itself) this decade.
And I'd like to think that devices will emerge to make the Kindle look primitive and the BlackBerry like a museum piece to consume text, audio and video without carrying along an extra suitcase in the process.
But the digital revolution is going to take a little breather in the next 18 months as innovators hunker down and find it tough to get the capitalists to venture.
If Rubel is looking for a turning point, maybe we'll be sorting it out by 2014. But habits don't change that quickly and 2,000 days aren't that far away.