By 2013 people will gain access to the Internet
more through their mobile devices than through their desktop computers. That's the view of the Gartner research firm.
There will be 1.82 billion mobile devices and 1.78 billion computers by then.
Soon after more than three billion people will be capable of conducting electronic transactions.
The next phase will also involve contextual information.
"Context will center on observing patterns, particularly location, presence and social interactions. Furthermore, whereas search was based on a 'pull' of information from the Web, context-enriched services will, in many cases, prepopulate or push information to users," the report notes.
Gartner Research produces an annual report on so-called "hype cycles" for about 1,650 technologies and media to identify when something is nascent, when it's maturing and when it's peaked or on the wane.
The report looks specifically at how such terms are making their way into corporate parlance --- as a measure of their salience with the public.
This year's suggests the hype on microblogging --- as in Twitter --- is reaching its peak
and is bound to decline. Soon, the report's principal author predicts, its spread will create user "disillusionment."
The report itself is sold, but the table of contents
reveals what's on the rise and what's on the decline.
On the rise: Socialcasting
, Media Discovery and Recommendation Engines
, Rich-Media Search Technologies
, Social Media Marketing Platforms
and Over-the-Top Set-Top Boxes.
At the peak: Internet TV
, Portable Flash Media for Content Distribution
, Social Media
, E-Book Readers
, Online Video Publishing Platform Providers
, Web 2.0 Distribution
, Digital Warehousing for Publishers
Sliding into the trough: Mobile Advertising, Network DVR
, Online Video
, Mobile Ticketing
, Consumer-Generated Media
, Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software
, Legitimate P2P
, Mobile TV Broadcasting
, Mobile Search
, Consumer Content Creation Tools
, Game Consoles as Media Hubs
and Consumer Digital Rights Management.