The annual media and entertainment report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers reveals more interesting dynamics in media consumption and revenue, principally in the growth of digital and in particular mobile. In the U.S., the Internet will overtake newspapers as the second-largest advertising medium by 2014. In Canada, the media market itself will grow about 5% annually in the next five years, spurred by mobile. Latin American, Asian and European markets will grow most rapidly, while North American markets will grow relatively slowly --- at a clip of about 3.9%. Overall the rate of growth is forecast at 4.2%, meaning global advertising of $498 billion U.S. by 2014. Interestingly, only the Internet and television will feature spending of more than $100 million on their media. "Consumers are embracing new media experiences with staggering speed. The advancing digital transformation is driving audience fragmentation to a level not previously seen. However, the current wave of change is of a different magnitude from previous ones both in its speed and its simultaneous impact across all segments," PwC said in its release. The report identifies three key trends: 1. The rising power of mobility. "The ability to consume and interact with content anywhere, anytime—and to share and discuss that content experience with other people via social networks—will become an increasingly integral part of people’s lives." 2. The increasing dominance of the Internet over all content consumption. "Using the Internet is now one of the great unifying experiences of the current era for consumers everywhere—and their expectation of Internet-style interactivity and access to content will continue to expand across media consumption in every segment." 3. The increasing readiness to pay for high-quality content. "Consumers are more willing to pay for content when accompanied by convenience and flexibility in usage, personalisation , and/or a differentiated experience that cannot be created elsewhere. Local relevance will also become important once again as an aspect of convenience and relevance." It is a little regarded truism that the troubles for the newspaper industry in the United States are not necessarily mirrored elsewhere. Above the border, the Canadian business isn't in the same dire situation, for instance. Nor is it below the border, either, in Mexico. While there are some European challenges, the New York Times today outlines how the situation in other countries isn't as problematic. NYT focuses on an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report on media in its 31 countries that demonstrates the challenges are rather small compared to those in the U.S. (A Canwest News Service report on it is here.) Copyright protection is a focal point in some countries, particularly as their media shift more resources to digital, but the overall economic picture isn't bleak. Which raises a question: Are media in other countries being led around by American prescriptions for problems they do not have? And another question: Are those problems merely delayed? Or: Are they simply the problems of American media? 3 Comments The Economist this week outlines the economic revival of the printed newspaper, noting that many of the factors that created strife in the sector --- newsprint, advertising declines, for example --- are no longer such menaces. It is, as The Economist notes in a headline, a "strange survival." The newspaper is getting smaller and thus leaner, delegating anything outside its core mandate to news services --- in effect, metropolitian newspapers are becoming city papers. In certain countries, the paper is thriving. In emerging markets there has never been any kind of a crisis. Even in America, the dual revenue stream of advertising and subscription will help ease the transition to digital and ensure the newspaper keeps its afloat. "That emphasis on giving readers what they want to read, as opposed to what lofty notions of civic responsibility suggest they ought to read, is part of a global trend. Newspapers are becoming more distinctive and customer-focused. Rather than trying to bring the world to as many readers as possible, they are carving out niches," it writes. The newspaper's survival is by no means assured, The Economist concludes. Young people don't seem willing to pay for news. "But the recession brought out an impressive and unexpected ability to adapt. If newspapers can keep that up in better times, they may be able to contemplate more than mere survival." A PriceWaterhouseCoopers forecast issued today says advertising levels will only in 2015 recover to their 2007 levels. By that time, China will have surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest media market and more than 30% of advertising will be in the digital sphere. The report asserts the recession accelerated the transformation of the advertising business to digital. It says the United States and Canada were hit hardest by this change and will be slowest to rebound. Worldwide, advertising declined 11.8% last year. It predicts 3.9% compound growth in North American advertising but stronger growth in Europe (4.6%), in Asia (6.4%) and Latin America (8.8%). One other observation in the report: Consumers are shifting loyalty away from Internet and mobile phone providers and to the smartphone and tablet devices themselves. In his latest post on Reflections of a Newsosaur, Alan Mutter explores a recent theme of Yahoo's ambition in the news space. As he sees it, the $100-million-plus purchase last month of Associated Content and its 380,000 creators is another step toward the development of local news operations that --- coupled with Yahoo's sophisticated ad network and rich user database --- pose a real challenge to the newspaper. "Assuming the fare produced by Associated Content is sufficiently respectable to attract and retain substantial audiences, then Yahoo’s ability to deliver targeted ads – combined with its overwhelming market presence on the web – will give it significant advantages against the incumbent newspapers operating in most markets," Mutter writes. It will be important, then, for newspapers to be part of Yahoo's advertising network, Mutter surmises. Don't chase large audiences. Go for a focused one. Engage who you have. Don't just blanket them. And know your place in the media landscape. Stop trying to be everything. Those are summarized views of the head of the Trinity Mirror digital group in the United Kingdom, Matt Kelly, as his firm makes the transition. Where once there were two streams of revenue, now there are 28. There are niche digital products for the football fan, for celebrity gossip, and others are in the works. Kelly says the advertiser wants an engaged audience, not a massive disengaged one. He laments distinguished media lumbering after the big crowd. Tackling smaller crowds can yield larger revenue. Google CEO Eric Schmidt said he'd been waiting a long time for today's announcement. He brought CEOs from Sony, Best Buy, Logitech and others to the stage to announce Google TV. What is it? We don't really know yet, although its aim is to marry the Web and the television set. It's clearly Google's effort to wrest a large piece of the television advertising pie. Here's what it seems to be: A marriage of platforms to permit universal search of television and Internet video, an intiative to make television a development tool, and an olive branch to Flash (arguably the best delivery of Web video to the screen, and most recently shunned by Apple, who will be Google TV's principal competitor). Sony will unveil it in an HDTV later this year and Logitech will deliver the search box. The intriguing $100-million-plus purchase today of Associated Content by Yahoo has raised several questions about the direction and function of the company. There are significant implications for the news business. In Yahoo's case, some questions: Is it now a full-fledged publisher? Is it mounting a new offensive against Google? Is it going to lead to the purchase and IPOs of other content machines? In the wider case of the industry, is the deal the portend of others that will shift the balance between producers and advertisers? Are we deepening the era of directed content? Ken Doctor weighs in and argues we are into an era of advertising driving content in ways it hasn't. The purchase of a content machine like Associated Content suggests the principle is in greater play than ever, with Yahoo able to offer advertisers content they want. "News sites, in this scenario, are increasingly distributors, exercising some choice of what appears on their sites, under their own brands," he writes. Media companies had better get used to the new landscape of targeted good-enough pro-am content based on user behaviour, Doctor suggests. Andrew Rice contributes a lengthy feature this Sunday to the New York Times Magazine on the economics of journalism in the digital age. In essence, and to say the least, he concludes it's challenging. Rice examines several start-ups, from True/Slant to The Awl to Faster Times, and reflects the general view that advertising and subscription support of quality in the digital age is --- for the time being, anyway --- more than a little daunting. "No one seems to know how to value the product anymore," Rice writes. That said, even stripped of the romanticism of the start-ups, Rice concludes that many may offer new models for sustainability. Just not soon, he seems to say. Media economist Robert Picard explains in his latest post the difficulty in setting new terms of access to news content. He outlines the challenge of operating as a multi-sided media --- that is, media with several relationships that help set value. Newspapers used to be two-sided media: sold to readers and to advertisers. The more readers one had, the more it could reap in advertising revenue. The more advertising revenue, the more resources to attract readers. Now newspapers have turned into multi-sided media: to readers and advertisers traditionally in print, to online readers free, to online advertisers and to advertisers using both. "If one alters the free price online to create a paying audience, it not only affects the willingness of online advertisers to pay, but affects the willingness of joint audiences and advertisers to pay and thus effects performance of the print sales as well," Picard writes. As a result, he says it's not easy to monetize newspapers. Those who choose to do so need to weigh carefully the effect on the other sides of the piece. |
I am the Ombudsman of the CBC and Executive-in-Residence as an Adjunct Professor at the Graduate School of Journalism at University of British Columbia.
In 2008 I launched themediamanager.com to keep abreast of significant change in media. Since I moved to the Ombudsman's role, I have shifted the focus of the blog to media ethics. Intentionally you will not find my opinions here. Any such views should not be inferred as my employer's. I have held the senior editorial roles at The Vancouver Sun, CTV News, The Hamilton Spectator and Southam News. I am the founding Executive Editor of National Post, a former Ottawa Bureau Chief and General News Editor at The Canadian Press, and host on CBC Newsworld. My social networking includes activity on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin. ArchivesFebruary 2012 CategoriesAll The Canadian analytics firm Sysomos has published new data on nearly 100 million posts it reviewed and it shows
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